MST's Analysis - Issue 4 - October 2020

October 2020

Dear Comrades,

In the midst of a serious political, health, environmental, economic and social crisis, we are moving into a municipal electoral process that can bring changes in the correlation of the country's forces.

Here we are describing some elements from the MST's perspective on the POLITICAL SITUATION OF BRAZIL.

1. There is a common reading among left-wing organizations that the correlation of forces in the country remains balanced and unstable.  However, in recent weeks the Bolsonaro government has managed to regain some of its stability, with political agreements and distribution of positions with the center right and part of the bourgeoisie.

2. Faced with the concrete threat of imprisonment of the sons of Bolsonaro, involved in various crimes and prosecutions, he made an agreement with  the so-called "deep state" - the public institutions that defend the interests of capital, such as the Supreme Court, the National Congress and  the Federal Police -,  and agreed to retreat into the rhetoric. At a dinner with the presidents of these institutions, a “peace agreement” was sealed.

3. On the side of the bourgeoisie, support for the ultra-liberal economic program of Paulo Guedes (Minister of Economy) continues, which removes even more rights and accelerates the privatization of state-owned companies such as Petrobras, Eletrobras, Correios, Banco do Brasil.

4. But there is a sector of the bourgeoisie, represented in the PSDB (party of ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso) that seeks to distance itself from the Bolsonaro government, despite agreeing with its economic policy, but does not have the courage to be involved in its replacement.

5. It also increases the presence and influence of the military in the government, albeit individually and not as an institution, giving the government a certain political stability.

6. But despite this climate of stability, government contradictions will follow, such as:

a) The economic plan only deepens the social and economic crisis. In other words, banks, international corporations and large companies are saved and accumulate again, but small and medium-sized companies and the economy as a whole remains mired, because it depends on the internal market, which is restricted.

b) Foreign capitalists continue to withdraw their capital from Brazil.

c) The government announces that it will cut from R $ 600.00 to R $ 300.00 the emergency aid offered to part of the working class economically affected by the pandemic. This can lead to a worsening of the living conditions of the poorest.

d) Unemployment rates continue to rise.

e) The price of food continues to rise every day and affects the poorest.

The environmental crisis is getting worse every day, with an increase in fires in the Amazon, in the Pantanal, in the Cerrado. Practically the three main biomes in Brazil are burning. And climate change is perceptible by the entire population throughout the country, with the warmest spring in history.

8. There is a disregard for the health issue, with state governments and city halls relaxing the policy of social isolation and an unreal climate that the pandemic has passed, which only makes the situation worse in the medium term. Brazil has already reached 150,000 deaths and continues with a high average of deaths and without any social control.

9. At the international level, the Bolsonaro government remains isolated, and if Trump loses the elections in the United States, he will have practically no allied government.

10. Society is now only politically involved with the municipal elections in November. The bourgeois press created the propaganda that the left is divided and that it will be defeated in the elections. Early research indicates that the leftist parties are well positioned, that the right is more divided than the left. And we can be surprised in several capitals. In the political centers of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte candidates from the right center, but who are not Bolsonaro's allies tend to win.

11. The working class is unable to mobilize to defend its rights and guide the “Fora Bolsonaro” campaign.

12. In view of this, we must work with a medium-term perspective of wearing out the government and mobilizing the working class around issues related the people’s interests, such as:

a) Defense of emergency aid of R $ 600;

b) Guaranteeing access to food and combating rising food prices;

c) Defense of employment and emergency measures for that purpose